What will warfare look like in 2040? Some of the answer is already in service or in flight testing, and some of it has been tried and dropped. This guide sorts the main military technologies by how far along they really are as of 2026: hypersonic weapons that have been used in combat, stealth aircraft in testing, naval weapons that were cancelled or rebuilt, lasers that work against drones, and spaceplanes. Each claim names the programme and the date, because in this field announcements and capabilities often differ.
Military technology for 2040: status in 2026
| Technology | Example | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Stealth bomber | B-21 Raider (US) | First flight November 2023; in flight testing, first base planned for 2027 |
| Sixth-generation fighter | F-47 (US Air Force), F/A-XX (US Navy) | Contracts awarded to Boeing in March 2025 and September 2026; first F-47 flight expected around 2028 |
| Hypersonic missiles | Kinzhal, Avangard (Russia); Dark Eagle (US) | Avangard declared in service 2019; Kinzhal used in combat 2022; first US Army Dark Eagle battery formed 2025 |
| Naval railgun | US Navy electromagnetic railgun; Japanese ATLA railgun | US programme halted 2021; Japan fired one from a ship at a target in 2025 |
| Ship-based laser | HELIOS (US Navy) | On USS Preble since 2022; has shot down drones in tests |
| Military spaceplane | X-37B (US Space Force) | Uncrewed; eighth mission launched August 2025 |
The Evolution of Aircraft Technology
The Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider is the US Air Force’s next stealth bomber, meant to replace the B-1 and eventually the B-2 Spirit. It first flew on 10 November 2023, more test aircraft have joined since, and the Air Force plans to base the first operational aircraft at Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota from 2027. Its range and payload are classified, so figures that circulate online are estimates.
For fighters, the United States chose two sixth-generation designs. On 21 March 2025 the Air Force awarded Boeing the contract for the F-47, the crewed aircraft of its Next Generation Air Dominance programme, with a first flight expected around 2028. On 29 September 2026 the Pentagon announced that Boeing had also won the Navy’s F/A-XX carrier fighter competition, which will replace the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet. Neither design has been published in detail; the speeds, ranges and laser weapons quoted for them in older articles were speculation.
Hypersonic weapons, which fly at more than five times the speed of sound and can manoeuvre, are no longer a 2030s prospect. Russia declared its first Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle regiment operational in December 2019, and the Avangard is claimed to reach about Mach 20 at high altitude. Russia says it first used the air-launched Kinzhal missile in combat in Ukraine in March 2022. China has displayed the DF-17 glide vehicle missile. The US Army designated its Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon “Dark Eagle” in April 2025 and activated its first battery in December 2025, with operational missiles still being delivered in 2026.
Revolutionizing Naval Technology
The three Zumwalt-class destroyers show how quickly naval plans change. They were designed around stealth and a pair of 155 mm Advanced Gun Systems for shore bombardment. The Navy cancelled the guns’ special long-range ammunition in 2016 because each round cost too much, which left the guns with nothing to fire. USS Zumwalt has since had both guns removed and replaced by four large launch tubes for the Conventional Prompt Strike hypersonic missile, each holding three missiles; the missiles themselves are still in development and testing.
The Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines will replace the Ohio class. They use electric drive to reduce noise, and their reactor cores are designed to last the boat’s whole 42-year service life without refuelling, which is why 12 Columbias can replace 14 Ohios. The first boat, District of Columbia, has slipped from a planned 2027 delivery to late 2028 or early 2029.
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Advanced Weapon Systems
An electromagnetic railgun accelerates a metal projectile along two rails using a huge pulse of electric current, reaching speeds around Mach 6 without explosive propellant. The US Navy spent roughly 500 million dollars on its railgun over more than 15 years and halted the programme in 2021, citing cost, the difficulty of fitting it to ships and barrels that wore out after few shots. Japan has continued: its defence acquisition agency fired a railgun from the test ship JS Asuka in 2023 and reported hitting a target vessel at sea in mid-2025.
Laser weapons have made more progress. The US Navy tested the 30-kilowatt-class LaWS laser on USS Ponce from 2014 until the ship was retired in 2017. Its successor, the roughly 60-kilowatt HELIOS system, has been installed on the destroyer USS Preble since 2022 and has shot down drones in tests. Lasers are cheap per shot and need no magazine, but their range is limited by the atmosphere, and they need large amounts of electrical power and cooling.
Space Warfare
The most advanced military spaceplane is the US Space Force’s X-37B, an uncrewed, reusable vehicle about nine metres long that launches on a rocket and lands on a runway. Its missions have lasted from months to more than two years, and its eighth mission launched on a Falcon 9 on 21 August 2025 carrying laser communications and quantum navigation experiments. Its exact military role is classified.
Other rapid-launch spaceplane projects have stalled. Boeing withdrew from DARPA’s Phantom Express programme, meant to launch small satellites on short notice, in January 2020. SpaceX’s Starship is a fully reusable rocket rather than a spaceplane, and Sierra Space’s Dream Chaser is a civilian cargo vehicle designed to supply space stations. The idea of spaceplanes that “intercept and neutralize” enemy satellites remains a concept, not a programme.
Conclusion: Warfare 2040
The technologies most likely to shape warfare in 2040 are the ones already in service and being improved: stealth aircraft, hypersonic missiles, cheap drones and lasers to counter them, and the satellites and networks that connect them. Railguns and military spaceplanes show the opposite lesson. Impressive demonstrations do not guarantee a weapon that is affordable, reliable and worth its space on a ship.
References
Cite this article
Turner, A. (2023, July 31). Warfare 2040: The Wild Future of Military Technology. ScienceShot. https://scienceshot.com/post/warfare-2040-the-wild-future-of-military-technology
Turner, Alex. “Warfare 2040: The Wild Future of Military Technology.” ScienceShot, 31 July 2023, scienceshot.com/post/warfare-2040-the-wild-future-of-military-technology.
Turner, Alex. “Warfare 2040: The Wild Future of Military Technology.” ScienceShot, July 31, 2023. https://scienceshot.com/post/warfare-2040-the-wild-future-of-military-technology.
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title = {{Warfare 2040: The Wild Future of Military Technology}},
organization = {ScienceShot},
date = {2023-07-31},
year = {2023},
url = {https://scienceshot.com/post/warfare-2040-the-wild-future-of-military-technology}
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